A weekly look at 5 indicators that depict the current market environment. $BPSPX:$VIX = 97.31 $BXM:$SPX = 70.22 $CPMKTE:$CPMKTB = 39.67 $SPXA50R:$VIX = 87.58 $SPXHILO:$VIX = 15 The only glimmer of bullish hope my indicators offer is a 50% increase in the $SPXHILO:$VIX since my last analysis here. Otherwise, the bear market remains intact, and…
Market conditions continue to deteriorate as panic spreads around the globe. My SPX indicator made a new O, signaling increased volatility and fewer stocks in bullish formations. Buyers should step to the sidelines and wait till the current rush to safety subsides. The buy write index continues to outperform the underlying SPX, reinforcing my bearish…
In an effort to create more structure for this blog, I’m re-posting 5 charts that depict various trends within the $SPX. In the future this selection will be posted during the weekend. $BPSPX:$VIX = 139.61 $BXM:$SPX = 68.88 $CPMKTE:$CPMKTB = 41.34 $SPXA50R:$VIX = 122.16 $SPXHILO:$VIX = 10.9 Why am I regurgitating this mass of pretty…
Hooray, an up day! Here are some things to consider. My bullish SPX indicator lives to see another day, perhaps it’ll make a new X by the week’s end. FINALLY, the BXM/SPX spread is heading lower, and that is a sign of more aggressive risk taking which is good for equities. Due to the overbought…
I hope to God that the chart below is a misprint and not a premonition. If bonds make a move like that, this crisis is going to take a turn for the worst. Though we closed positive Friday, my indicator fell, suggesting a bearish divergence in an uptrend. Buy on the dip is still in…
This market continues to exhibit an upward bias, so keep buying the dip. Risks remain high. The markets haven’t looked this bullish and stable since Obama was elected. The spread between Buywrite and Buy ‘N’ Hold indexes made a new low and violated the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential trend change. The falling spread…
A few market signs for the lost. The following precipitous graph is an example of the impact the financial crisis is having on the real economy. The BDI indicates how much shippers get paid for carrying freight. Due to the unwillingness of banks to write letters of credit for merchandise, shipping is mired in a…
A few ratios and some interesting developments. US Equity / US Bonds have reached a prior level of support. Watch for resistance. Another day of advancing volume significantly outweighing declining volume. The US Dollar looks ready to break its recent and sharp uptrend, implying slowing momentum. Silver is putting in a nice base, and is…
American Equities vs. Bonds are rallying in a downtrend, but approaching resistance. The stabilization of Miners vs. Gold reduces deflationary worries. Relative to gold, the 30Y is bouncing off long term resistance, but remains in an uptrend. Signs of stabilization are emerging as these ratios exhibit mean reversion. If volatility can stabilize, we may be…
I’ve been doing more tinkering with stockchart.com’s free P&F charts. I like Point and Figure over Candlesticks because price can be scaled to Average True Range, which helps expedient trend recognition. If you aren’t familiar with ATR, look it up and read something by Van Tharp. Aside from charting, Average True Range is a statistical…