Quick Thoughts on Crypto
It occurs to me that I haven’t published a damn thing on blockchains since 2014. Bit of a shame as things have really taken off since then. One day I’ll have to recap the past few years in hashland; there have been some crazy ups, and downs that made my head spin and my stomach turn. Fortunately my accounts show substantial profit, even if I have repeatedly sabotaged myself with poor risk management and a lack of self awareness (despite prescribing it to every sentient creature within earshot).
Anyhow…
In case you didn’t know, we’re still Bullish. Looks like institutions have really started to get serious about this stuff. Feels like the asymptotic adoption curve has arrived, and I suspect we haven’t strayed too far from the base. People ask me all the time about bitcoin, ether etc, “but isn’t it risky?” or “I don’t understand it,” yadda yadda. Generally I try to point out that nobody went broke risking 1%, and that nobody really understands anything if you look closely, but that doesn’t seem to get people turned on.
Really, I don’t know why I even bother trying with some folk. Scratch that, I know why; it’s fun to say esoteric things and sound smart, because I like how my voice tickles the abdomen and simply love the look of perplexed awe that creeps on otherwise dignified faces. This kind of indulgence should probably find a more useful outlet, but for the time being, uttering tech jargon like quantum-resistant-decentralized-AI-ledger-verification feels like nutting after 2 weeks of silent meditation.
Moreover, I remain a creature who enjoys riding the quantifiable trend, and these charts have the best technical traits ever. No fundamentals (funny-mentals HT Ed Seykota), no discounted cash flow (unless you hold NEO and collect GAS?), 24/7 markets (blessing and a curse) and you get level two data for FREE. FREE. FREE. I mean, have you seen the GDAX book? Unbelievable what you can do today.
Financial advisers everywhere remain unbelievably hesitant to recommend any allocation to Bitcoin, let alone Ethereum or Litecoin, not to mention the rest of the shitcoin pack. This behavior hardly comes as a surprise, Wall Street and the RIA set have little to gain from such recommendations, they don’t have blockchain products that generate commissions and fees, so why sell it?
Do your own homework, learn how to quantify a trend and implement risk management through realistic position sizing with an eye on the downside risks. Also, orgasm, meditate, go for a run and sip some yage, but not necessarily in that order. If the last few years have taught me anything, peace of mind begets peace of mind, so get your physiology sorted out so it stops hijacking your emotions, feelings, beliefs and actions, otherwise you’ll be unhappy with the results.