Month: January 2009

Bong Break

A tip of the hat to Adam Warner at the Daily Options Report for re-posting this awesome clip. I’m glad the fellows at Clusterstock keep tabs on the important stuff. CNBC: The Whole Country Needs A Bong Break from AlleyInsider on Vimeo. Clearly Smoking Securities is ahead of the curve.

Ratios to Reason $SPX

A weekly look at 5 indicators that depict the current market environment. $BPSPX:$VIX = 97.31 $BXM:$SPX = 70.22 $CPMKTE:$CPMKTB = 39.67 $SPXA50R:$VIX = 87.58 $SPXHILO:$VIX = 15 The only glimmer of bullish hope my indicators offer is a 50% increase in the $SPXHILO:$VIX since my last analysis here. Otherwise, the bear market remains intact, and…

Portfolio Theory $DBC $EEM $IWN $IYR $PLW

A look at the 5 least correlated liquid ETFs. Commodities have stabilized over the last two months, but DBC technically remains in a downtrend. Long positions are remain speculative, but my gut tells me that there is more risk being short than long. The bounce I was looking for in emerging markets never materialized, and…

Quote Critique

“The big guys are the status quo, not the innovators.”– Kenneth L. Fisher (Forbes columnist) Good quote, asshat speaker. I’m flying tomorrow, so rather than bore you with a personal attack upon Mr. Fisher, I will ask you to pray. Pray that I don’t lose both engines to a flock of birds, that the fellow…

Quote Critique

“Writing a book is an adventure. To begin with it is a toy, an amusement; then it is a mistress, and then a master, and then a tyrant.” – Winston Churchill (British statesman, 1874-1965) This quote appears to bear little relevance to trading, but if blogs are like books, then I’m still in the nascent…

Manic Markets

The market continues to churn in a wide range, but there are some signs of change. Hedged trading has begun under performing the underlying index, signaling short term bullishness. Volatility is falling, but remains high, so stay cautious. Tuesdays selling may be a capitulation point considering the ratio of down/up volume. Up/down volume on Wednesday…

Quote Critique

“People become attached to their burdens sometimes more than the burdens are attached to them.” – George Bernard Shaw (Irish dramatist, 1856-1950) Revealing wisdom by reversing the order of words is a tried and true method, and the technique borders cliche due to its prevalence. Nevertheless, Shaw hits on an excellent point that relates to…

Today’s Twitterd Tickers $FAZ $C $BAC $AAPL $STT

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits. Apple looks ready to plunge into the abyss. If you’re a regular reader of Smoking Securities, you know I think AAPL is a dog. $27 cash is great, but using using a low estimate of 4.66 EPS next year, a 10 PE makes this a $74 stock….

Historical Indeed

A new guy moves to the White House every eight years. I think the real news is here; today was the biggest Dow drop on inauguration in history. Volatility is screaming upwards, and clearly fewer stocks are in bullish formations. The tape still warrants selling the rips, and I suspect we’re in for bigger dips….

Quote Critique

“A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim.” – Kenneth Chang (NY Times journalist) Misinformation and whim probably account for more market trading than I’d like to imagine.