SPXHILO:VIX rose 24% to close at 193, the highest measure since September 2008. This signifies the percentage of stocks making new highs is increasing relative to volatility, a change that promotes the likelihood of successful investment. So long as the uptrend remains intact, I will continue buying stocks and the weakness in Treasuries continues to…
This post is graphic heavy but the message is clear, increased shorting and liquidity are the modi operandi. Until these charts begin to print X’s, the S&P 500 is not a safe investment. Volatility is increasing relative to the number of strong performing stocks, reducing the odds of successful investment as market breadth wanes unfavorably….
The SPXHILO fell relative to the VIX, indicating fewer stocks are trading at record highs as volatility rises. As the number of stocks making highs wanes, the odds of profitable investment decrease. I’m still selling leveraged ETF’s like FAS/FAZ BGU/BGZ TNA/TZA, but I’ve been taking my long positions off the table.
To be wealthy in life, you gotta recognize iced dice. Today’s odds are dangerous, don’t catch a falling knife. This is a composite of two derivatives, the Record High Percent (SPXHILO) and Volatility (VIX) Indexes. Together, they describe a market probability, the percentage of stocks at new highs/volatility (SPXHILO:VIX). Making money is easier when stocks…
The 5 least correlated positive return ETFs show numerous markets cracking critical support and making new lows. S&P 500 indicators are bearish across the board. The market remains fahklempt, buyers beware. The only positive things I see are emerging markets holding above the November lows, and Treasuries failing to make new highs, despite ominous news…
A weekly look at 5 indicators that depict the current market environment. $BPSPX:$VIX = 97.31 $BXM:$SPX = 70.22 $CPMKTE:$CPMKTB = 39.67 $SPXA50R:$VIX = 87.58 $SPXHILO:$VIX = 15 The only glimmer of bullish hope my indicators offer is a 50% increase in the $SPXHILO:$VIX since my last analysis here. Otherwise, the bear market remains intact, and…
In an effort to create more structure for this blog, I’m re-posting 5 charts that depict various trends within the $SPX. In the future this selection will be posted during the weekend. $BPSPX:$VIX = 139.61 $BXM:$SPX = 68.88 $CPMKTE:$CPMKTB = 41.34 $SPXA50R:$VIX = 122.16 $SPXHILO:$VIX = 10.9 Why am I regurgitating this mass of pretty…
I’m a huge fan of percentage/volatility charts, but due to their underwhelming popularity, they’re confusing. Hopefully someone understands their value besides myself. Although my NASDAQ indicator has gone bearish here, the SPX is holding on for dear life. There are fewer bullish stocks and volatility is rising, buyers beware. The BXM/SPX spread has broken resistance…
The market continues to rally as the Fed lowers key lending rates. Rate cuts are having a negative effect on US bonds relative to foreign ones. Up volume significantly outweighed down volume, continuing the bullish theme. More stocks are trading above their 50dma on lower volatility. New highs are becoming more prevalent as this index…
Fortune favors the bulls as the rally continues. More stocks are getting bullish and the volatility is dropping. Stocks above the 50dma are increasing, but we don’t have a confirmed trend. There are an increasing number of stocks making all time highs, but it’s still meager. The spread between short and long term volatility is…