SPY & DIA holding up, but the breadth and volatility of the NASDAQ feels ominous. We haven’t seen this kind of action since July 2015, about a month before a memorable flash crash. Broadly speaking, when the blue line rises above the red, stay long stocks (SCHB). If red gets above blue, favor bonds (SCHZ)….
Despite hitting all-time-highs in April, the major US indexes are looking weak. The S&P 500 continues to find support, but note the lateral consolidation and relatively low volume. Look out below…
The apparent autoeroticism of this process does not discourage. Though a benchmark for authenticity remains nebulous at best, the thrill of purging the mind for none, a minor feat of intellectual exhibitionism, does variably produce the sweet if fleeting sense of relief. Respite from what? That strange sensation which lurks somewhere “inside,” though the origins…
Everything has changed, but nothing seems different. The S&P 500 currently displays structural characteristics resembling the market in August 2007, May 2010 & August 2011. If memory serves me correct, those months were marked by an unraveling housing market, the flash crash, and a European debt crisis. Perhaps something more substantial than Ebol-ISIS-ocalypse has infected the markets, skyrocketing treasuries and…
The S&P 500 Bullidex formed a new high as it rose 4.05% to close at 308, indicating an increase in the number of rising stocks relative to volatility. Although the S&P 500 has yet to trade above the September 2008 level, the Bullidex shows internal strength comparable to May 2008. With volatility making lows and…
The S&P 500 Bullidex rose 3.33% to close at 270, a new high for the year and a big positive sign for the overall market. Volatility continues to fall relative to the percentage of rising stocks, providing an increasingly advantageous environment for speculative investment. There are tons of stocks hitting new highs, many of which…
The S&P 500 Bullidex has resumed an uptrend, signaling decreasing volatility relative to the number of rising stocks. This change implies a bullish market conducive to successful investment. I’m long quite a few stocks, and you should really take a look at the list posted by The Fly here. The economy sucks, unemployment will probably…
Things look grim for the S&P 500 as the Bullidex fell 8.45% to close at 169, breaking the June low. This is a big warning sign to all equity investors as the volatility increases relative to the number of rising stocks, which lowers the probability of successful investment. Bull markets tend to see a reduction…
Despite today’s reversal and positive close in the S&P 500, the Bullidex fell 10% to close at 184. This divergence suggests a weakening uptrend and signals downside risk as volatility increases relative to the number of rising stocks. The month of June was a whipsaw cluster-fuck for my indicator, but that comes with the territory….
Although the financial sector closed positive on Tuesday, the corresponding Bullidex fell .62%, to close at 159. Higher prices mask the internals of the sector, which is decreasing in bullish breadth relative to volatility. This divergence suggests that the rally is false, and that shorting XLF or FAS is a good idea. The XLF remains…