BXM:SPX compares the relative performance of selling S&P 500 covered calls against holding the equity unhedged. When buywriting outperforms the underlying index, it implies that the market is weak because option writers are keeping premiums as strikes remain out of the money. Since the credit crisis began in late 2007, the relative strength of BXM…
Despite today’s positive close for the S&P 500, the Bullidex fell 1.79% to end the day at 161.3. This divergence indicates a minor weakening of the up trend as volatility increased relative to the percentage of rising stocks. A new row of O’s in the far right column coupled with a declining blue line will…
The S&P 500 Bullidex rose 4.35% to close at 139.5, signaling lower volatility and more rising stocks. The Bullidex hasn’t been this high since January, and with the March lows above the November levels, things continue to look good for the bulls. Year over year, despite the dramatic fall in the price of the S&P…
The S&P 500 took a beating today, and there is no sign of an end to the selling. Volatility continues to increase amidst a declining number of rising stocks. Priced in 10Y T-Bills, the SPX is making a waterfall with no noticeable support to stop it. There is no reason to call a bottom in…
The 5 least correlated positive return ETFs show numerous markets cracking critical support and making new lows. S&P 500 indicators are bearish across the board. The market remains fahklempt, buyers beware. The only positive things I see are emerging markets holding above the November lows, and Treasuries failing to make new highs, despite ominous news…
The market is controlled by the smartest people with the most money. Their actions inform the direction of capital, providing an edge to participants who follow the trend. This iteration of the SPX Buywrite : SPX ratio goes back to 2006, and is shown in non-linear time. The distance between years on the X axis…
A weekly look at 5 indicators that depict the current market environment. $BPSPX:$VIX = 97.31 $BXM:$SPX = 70.22 $CPMKTE:$CPMKTB = 39.67 $SPXA50R:$VIX = 87.58 $SPXHILO:$VIX = 15 The only glimmer of bullish hope my indicators offer is a 50% increase in the $SPXHILO:$VIX since my last analysis here. Otherwise, the bear market remains intact, and…
The market continues to churn in a wide range, but there are some signs of change. Hedged trading has begun under performing the underlying index, signaling short term bullishness. Volatility is falling, but remains high, so stay cautious. Tuesdays selling may be a capitulation point considering the ratio of down/up volume. Up/down volume on Wednesday…
A new guy moves to the White House every eight years. I think the real news is here; today was the biggest Dow drop on inauguration in history. Volatility is screaming upwards, and clearly fewer stocks are in bullish formations. The tape still warrants selling the rips, and I suspect we’re in for bigger dips….
Market conditions continue to deteriorate as panic spreads around the globe. My SPX indicator made a new O, signaling increased volatility and fewer stocks in bullish formations. Buyers should step to the sidelines and wait till the current rush to safety subsides. The buy write index continues to outperform the underlying SPX, reinforcing my bearish…