“Writing a book is an adventure. To begin with it is a toy, an amusement; then it is a mistress, and then a master, and then a tyrant.” – Winston Churchill (British statesman, 1874-1965) This quote appears to bear little relevance to trading, but if blogs are like books, then I’m still in the nascent…
The market continues to churn in a wide range, but there are some signs of change. Hedged trading has begun under performing the underlying index, signaling short term bullishness. Volatility is falling, but remains high, so stay cautious. Tuesdays selling may be a capitulation point considering the ratio of down/up volume. Up/down volume on Wednesday…
“People become attached to their burdens sometimes more than the burdens are attached to them.” – George Bernard Shaw (Irish dramatist, 1856-1950) Revealing wisdom by reversing the order of words is a tried and true method, and the technique borders cliche due to its prevalence. Nevertheless, Shaw hits on an excellent point that relates to…
Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits. Apple looks ready to plunge into the abyss. If you’re a regular reader of Smoking Securities, you know I think AAPL is a dog. $27 cash is great, but using using a low estimate of 4.66 EPS next year, a 10 PE makes this a $74 stock….
A new guy moves to the White House every eight years. I think the real news is here; today was the biggest Dow drop on inauguration in history. Volatility is screaming upwards, and clearly fewer stocks are in bullish formations. The tape still warrants selling the rips, and I suspect we’re in for bigger dips….
“A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim.” – Kenneth Chang (NY Times journalist) Misinformation and whim probably account for more market trading than I’d like to imagine.
Here is the weekly rundown of the 5 least correlated liquid ETFs. DBC is showing some signs of life on minuscule volume. Intuitively, I’m bullish commodities, but since they remain in a technical downtrend, I remain cautious. Emerging markets are bouncing within a newly formed downtrend. EEM looks capable of rallying from this point, and…
“The public may boo me, but when I go home and think of my money, I clap.”– Horace (Roman poet-critic, Epistles, c. 20 BC) The boos of the public don’t concern me, but I plan on dying penniless, surrounded by the people I love. Money has incredible value, but only if you can give it…
Call me a complacent bear, but I think the market has an ass kicking in store for the bulls. Yes, that’s a new low for the banking index. Yes, there may be a major pop due to government shenanigans. Yes, it will probably be a fantastic shorting opportunity. Stocks on the NYSE are increasingly volatile…
Bank of America (a.k.a. Countrywide Lynch) “surprised” the Street, and cratered to a new low. This chart has been screaming sell for months, and unless you have a short investment time frame, stay away from this monstrosity. The market is putting in a helluva rally at the time of this post. Volatility remains high, so…